Current Form and Team News
AJ Auxerre is currently navigating a challenging period in Ligue 1, sitting in 11th place and enduring a winless streak that has stretched to nine games across all competitions. Their recent 1-1 draw against AS Saint-Etienne highlighted their ongoing struggles, with Hamed Traor scoring early but the team failing to maintain their lead. Injuries are also a concern, with key players like Nathan Buayi-Kiala and Lasso Coulibaly confirmed out, and Hamed Traor facing a late fitness test. This adds to their woes, especially as they prepare to face a formidable Lille OSC.
Lille OSC, on the other hand, is enjoying a strong run, currently in third place in Ligue 1 and actively competing in the UEFA Champions League. Their recent 2-1 victory over OGC Nice showcased their resilience, and they have a winning streak of four matches in the league. Lille's top scorers, including David and Zhegrova, have been pivotal in their success, and their ability to score late in matches (55% of goals between 76-90 minutes) could be crucial against Auxerre.
Head-to-Head and Historical Context
Historically, AJ Auxerre has had a slight edge when playing at home against Lille, with 9 wins out of 19 encounters. However, their last home victory against Lille dates back to 2009. In recent meetings, Lille has been dominant, winning three of the last five encounters, with two draws. The most common result between these teams is a 1-1 draw, occurring seven times, but Lille's current form suggests they might break this pattern.
Statistical Insights and Predictions
Auxerre's defensive vulnerabilities are evident, having conceded 28 goals in 23 matches, and they have struggled to keep clean sheets, managing only six all season. Their home form is particularly concerning, with no wins in their last four home matches. Lille, conversely, has been solid defensively, keeping clean sheets in their last three matches. Despite this, both teams have shown a propensity for high-scoring games, with Auxerre's matches seeing over 1.5 goals 82.6% of the time.
Given Lille's superior form, attacking prowess, and Auxerre's defensive frailties, the prediction leans towards an away win for Lille. However, considering Auxerre's ability to score, albeit inconsistently, and Lille's occasional lapses in away matches, it's likely that both teams will score.
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